Here's How Much More Expensive Houses Will Get in Halton

We have some good news and some bad news for prospective homebuyers in Oakville, Burlington and Milton.

The good news?

Home prices have dropped year-over-year.

The bad news?

They haven't dropped very much, and prices are expected to increase.

According to the recently released Royal LePage House Price Survey1 and Market Survey Forecast, the aggregate price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) decreased 0.4 per cent year-over-year in the third quarter of 2018 to $836,402.

And while most wouldn't think an aggregate price of just under a million is much of a relief, it is certainly lower than the highs the market experienced in 2017.

The survey says that, when broken out by housing type, the median price of a two-storey home in the GTA decreased 1.8 per cent year-over-year to $974,399, while the median price of a bungalow fell 2.6 per cent year-over-year to $806,772.

When it comes to condos, the story is very different.

According to the survey, the region saw condo prices increase 8.3 per cent to $513,546.

And while some might be surprised to see condo prices climb while low-rise home types drop (ever so slightly) in value, the climb makes sense when you consider the fact that condos are the last affordable housing type in the 416 and 905 areas.

The survey says that the City of Toronto saw healthy home price appreciation within the mid-single-digit range, supported by strong demand compared to listings.

In contrast, in most suburban regions within the 905, home appreciation continued to decline year-over-year.

Fortunately for owners, the survey finds that quarter-over-quarter trends are pointing to the beginning of a modest recovery in many of these regions.

“The GTA housing market is seeing steady demand for housing, despite the diminished purchasing power of many would-be buyers as a result of rising interest rates and the new mortgage stress test,” said Chris Slightham, president, Royal LePage Signature Realty. “Consumer confidence appears to be returning to the market. In the third quarter, we saw the tail end of a correction, mostly concentrated in the ‘905’, with the market now shifting toward a healthy, moderate recovery. This is providing welcome relief to buyers compared to the recent market frenzies seen in the region.”

So, where are prices headed?

Royal LePage forecasts that the aggregate price of a home in the GTA will rise 2.0 per cent to $853,097 in the fourth quarter of 2018.


Let's take a look at some individual markets, courtesy of Royal LePage:

The aggregate price of a home in the City of Toronto increased 5.2 per cent year-over-year to $883,892 in the third quarter of 2018. Not surprisingly, the city is home to an active condo market, especially among millennial buyers.

Over the same period of time, the median price of a condominium increased 9.3 per cent year-over-year to $561,733.

The survey says Brampton remains an attractive location for many first-time buyers and young families because of the selection of affordable detached two-storey homes. Over the three-month period, the region’s aggregate home value decreased by 2.1 per cent year-over-year to $702,851.

Royal LePage also looked at Mississauga and Halton muncipalities.

According to the survey, the Mississauga real estate market posted a modest gain in the third quarter of 2018, while the market in Oakville continued to cool. During the period, the aggregate price of a home in Mississauga and Oakville increased 1.3 per cent and decreased 2.1 per cent year-over-year to $747,808 and $1,081,472, respectively.

Home price appreciation in Milton decreased in the third quarter.

However, the survey says the town’s booming smart manufacturing economy continues to attract many families to the region. The aggregate home price within the city decreased 2.9 per cent year-over-year to $736,302.

In Canada, real estate is getting more valuable overall.

The Royal LePage National House Price Composite2, compiled from proprietary property data in 63 of the nation’s largest real estate markets, showed that the price of a home in Canada increased 2.2 per cent year-over-year to $625,499 in the third quarter.

The survey says that when broken out by housing type, the median price of a two-storey home rose 1.4 per cent year-over-year to $736,337, while the median price of a bungalow climbed 1.5 per cent to $519,886. Condominiums continued to see the highest rate of appreciation nationally when compared to the detached segment, rising 6.7 per cent year-over-year to $441,240.

Royal LePage is forecasting a 1.5 per cent increase in the aggregate price of a home in Canada over the next three months.

“Positive economic fundamentals, supported by a new agreement on trade, should bolster consumer confidence across Canada and stoke demand in the nation’s real estate market,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage. “Dangerously overheated regions have cooled considerably this year, while home prices have remained remarkably resilient. This is the soft landing that policy makers were hoping for.”

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