Number of new coronavirus cases projected to hit 0 before end of February

 

According to a recent report, new cases of the novel coronavirus are expected to hit nearly 0 before the end of February.

The report is based on a data model set up by a group of scientists who have been studying the virus.

"The current model predicts a rapid decrease in new, confirmed cases in the next week and virtually no new, confirmed cases by February 23," Dr Yi Zou, a lecturer in the Health and Environmental Sciences at Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University, said in a news release.

"While this appears to be a relatively rapid near-end to new, confirmed cases, we must keep in mind that factors could change the trend or that the data on current cases could be underreported, which would change the prediction," Zou continued.

The model is a logistic math equation, and, as of February 10, predicts there will be almost no new cases by February 23.

"According to the data we collected, the virus disease pattern shows a classic sigmoid function curve," Zou said. "The curve looks like a stretched version of the letter 'S.' We appear to be at the top curve of the 'S,' where the top curve indicates the maximum number of cases.

Currently, all the data is publicly available via website, which is updated regularly to help keep people informed.

"We will continue to update this model as data comes in to keep the public abreast of the latest prediction," Zou added.

Your Comments