Oakville homes prices expected to rise 7 per cent next year

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Published November 29, 2023 at 3:35 pm

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An in-depth study of the Canadian real estate market predicts home prices in Oakville will rise seven per cent next year, far outstripping the predicted 0.5 per cent increase nationwide.

Re/Max Canada said Canadians’ outlook on home ownership remains positive despite challenging market conditions in 2023, including a persistent housing shortage, and a tricky interest rate environment.

According to the RE/MAX 2024 Housing Market Outlook Report, the 73 per cent of Canadians are confident home ownership is the best investment, a sentiment that remains unchanged year-over-year.

“It’s been a challenging year for Canadian homebuyers and sellers, who have been feeling the effects of a severe housing shortage and the high cost of living, but much like Canada’s housing market, Canadians have stayed resilient,” said Christopher Alexander, president of Re/Max Canada. “Historically, real estate has given owners excellent returns and strong financial security and that hasn’t changed.”

Oakville is expected to remain a sellers’ market for the foreseeable future.

The average sale price in the Oakville housing market decreased by 4.1 per cent between 2022 and 2023 (from $1.76M to $1.68M) while the number of sales transactions decreased by 13.8 per cent (from 1,404 to 1,210).

“Oakville is currently a seller’s market, with some experiencing more balanced conditions based on inventory levels. This is likely to continue into 2024. Oakville could expect to see an increase of up to 14.5 per cent in the number of sales transactions by end of 2024,” reads the report.

The top three neighbourhoods likely to be the most desirable in Oakville next year are Bronte, Central and Old Oakville. All three areas boast key liveability features such as GO train/transportation access, and proximity to shopping and waterfront areas, and all three areas score high for walkability.

Lack of inventory is the core issue affecting the Town’s housing market heading into 2024. Oakville’s five-month inventory is extremely low. However, unlike other regions in Canada, the city is not seeing the same widespread pressures on inventory due to immigration. If anything, the north of the city is sought after by newcomers, where there’s a greater density of affordable housing options like semi-detached homes, townhomes, and low-rise condos.

Likewise with the increased cost of borrowing and homes in the first-time buyer’s segment under $1M becoming scarce, first-time buyers are looking to alternative ways to buy in Oakville like co-ownership with family.

“If inventory levels continue to decrease throughout the winter, which, we’re anticipating it will, then prices will likely increase because of supply and demand. If you combine low inventory with softening of interest rates for variable and fixed mortgages as forecast for mid-2024, we could see prices increase,” said Lynn Hoffmann, Broker/Manager, Escarpment Realty Inc.

“Consumers will feel confident to purchase, but they won’t have all the inventory they want. Given this, the market is expected to continue to trend as a seller’s market in 2024.”

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